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Energy systems CO2 emissions, Gt per year
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This website contains data and analysis from Shell’s new Sky scenario. Unlike Shell’s previously published Mountains and Oceans exploratory scenarios, the Sky scenario is based on the assumption that society reaches the Paris Agreement’s goal of holding the rise in global average temperatures this century to well below two degrees Celsius (2°C) above pre-industrial levels. Unlike Shell’s Mountains and Oceans scenarios which unfolded in an open-ended way based upon plausible assumptions and quantifications, the Sky scenario was specifically designed to reach the Paris Agreement’s goal in a technically possible manner. These scenarios are a part of an ongoing process used in Shell for almost 50 years to challenge executives’ perspectives on the future business environment. They are designed to stretch management to consider even events that may only be remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Royal Dutch Shell plc securities.
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This horizontal timeline contains key milestones between now and the year 2100 that must be achieved if we are to create a low-carbon energy system. Scroll along the timeline and roll over the icons to view each milestone. Use the region selector to find milestones relevant to a specific region.
The data tables were compiled by the Shell scenarios Team in February 2018. The forward-looking data represents the outcome of Shell's analysis, while historical data have come from various data sources.
Oil and gas data sources include Wood Mackenzie, Rystad Energy, IHS, International Energy Agency, US Energy Information Administration, Canadian National Energy Board, US Geological Survey and Shell analysis. The coal resources are derived from Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) and Shell analysis. Renewable resources data include Navigant (Ecofys) and Shell analysis.
The figures for all energy sources and carriers are in exajoule (EJ) per year.
The figures for population are in millions of people and the figures for GDP in millions of USD (2010 USD, PPP).
The figures for energy service for passenger transport are in billion vehicle kilometres per year and for freight transport billion tonne kilometres per year.
For definitions or chart descriptions, please go to the Definitions tab.
Energy sources are those sources in found nature which can be used to provide energy. We follow the IEA's definitions of energy sources (www.iea.org/statistics/resources/balancedefinitions), but for convenience we will provide a shortened version here.
Energy carriers are useful forms of energy which can be consumed by end-use sectors. Energy carriers are created or generated from energy sources. For example, crude oil (energy source) is refined into gasoline, a liquid hydrocarbon fuel (energy carrier), which can then be used to fuel someone's car (end-use).
Energy carriers are useful forms of energy which can be consumed by end-use sectors. Energy carriers are created or generated from energy sources. For example, crude oil (energy source) is refined into gasoline, a liquid hydrocarbon fuel (energy carrier), which can then be used to fuel someone's car (end-use).
The Sky scenario was tested and quantified through the use of Shell's World Energy Model, Global Supply Model and the Global Energy Resources database. Find out more about these models here.
Read our World Energy Model Brochure for the complete methodology.
Find out moreRead our Global Supply Model brocure to find out.
Find out moreExplore how the world's fossil and renewable energy resources are distributed - now and in future.
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