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Paris Agreement and Sky scenario
Meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement
A new energy system is emerging
The Paris Agreement has sent a signal around the world: climate change is a serious issue that governments are determined to address
The Paris Agreement calls for an early peak in emissions
Net-zero emissions must be achieved during the second half of this century
Source: Shell Schematic
Achieving net-zero emissions requires change at every level of the energy system
Sky relies on a complex combination of mutually reinforcing drivers
Carbon pricing mechanisms are adopted by governments globally during the 2020s, leading to a meaningful cost of CO2 embedded within consumer goods and services.
A step change in the efficiency of energy use leads to gains above historical trends.
The rate of electrification of final energy more than triples, with global electricity generation reaching a level nearly five times today’s level.
New energy sources grow up to fiftyfold, with primary energy from renewables overtaking fossil fuels in the 2050s.
Some 10,000 large carbon capture and storage facilities will be operational by 2070, compared to fewer than 50 in 2020.
Net-zero deforestation is achieved. In addition, an area the size of Brazil being reforested offers the possibility of limiting warming to 1.5°C, the ultimate ambition of the Paris Agreement.
Consumers change their mindset, choosing low-carbon, high-efficiency options to meet their energy needs.
Continuously strong efficiency gains are needed to moderate the pace of global energy demand growth
Rising incomes in developing regions drive global energy demand. This is moderated by significant energy efficiency improvements
Source: Shell analysis, Sky scenario
Deep electrification transforms global final energy consumption in Sky
Nevertheless, the need for liquid and gaseous fuels in hard-to-electrify sectors remains significant, with biofuels and hydrogen emerging as major fuels to satisfy growth in energy services demand
Source: Shell analysis, Sky scenario
*LHCF : Liquid hydrocarbon fuel
Global primary energy undergoes major shifts in Sky
Renewables dominate by mid-century, as wind and solar deployment ramps up
Source: Shell analysis, Sky scenario
Fossil fuel demand peaks in the 2030s, but remains in sectors where substitution is difficult
Global coal demand declines in the mid-2020s. Oil demand peaks in 2025, but remains critical for air transport and non-energy use. Natural gas serves as a transition fuel into the 2030s prior to a large-scale shift to non-fossil power generation.
Source: Shell analysis, Sky scenario
A radically different system emerges in Sky, providing more and cleaner energy
Renewables’ share of global energy grows significantly
The size of the pie chart indicates the growth of the energy system
△ With carbon capture and storage
◯ Fossil
Source: Shell analysis
Sky achieves net-zero emissions by 2070
The scale of global change in Sky is unprecedented
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Global electricity consumption reaches 35,000 TWh/year, having risen close to 50% over the past decade
Action plans developed in C40 cities targeting net-zero emssions by 2050
Paris Agreement ratified
Global liquid fuel demand for passenger vehicles goes into decline
Governments reach an understanding on the appropriate cost of emissions
Global electricity consumption reaches 35,000 TWh/year, having risen close to 50% over the past decade
Accelerated investment in low-carbon energy quadruples solar PV and wind capacity to 5,000 GW total
First few countries to reach net-zero emissions
First intercontinental hydrogen flight
India leads the world in solar PV
India and China each reach one Gt CO2 per year stored
Solar PV passes oil as the largest energy source
Net deforestation comes to an end
Majority of trucks powered by electricity or hydrogen
850,000 10MW turbines
All reigons meet net-zero emissions
Biofuels overtake oil as the biggest component of liquid fuels
CO2 storage reaches 12 Gt per year
Global energy systems at 1,000 EJ per year (double 2010)
Last countries to reach net-zero emissions
Hydrogen at 10% of final energy
After celebrating 30 years at near-zero emissions, cities are in sight of achieving their circular economy goals globally
Sky shows a pathway to meeting the Paris goal of well below 2°C
A stretched 1.5°C ambition can be achieved by net global reforestation to the size of Brazil
Source: Shell analysis, MIT
Sky requires effective rewiring of the global economy in just 50 years
Significant change is needed across all sectors
Power generation in 2070
We could live in an increasingly electric world, powered mostly by renewables
In Sky, the rate of electrification by
2070
is more than triple the
historical rate of
2%
per decade since the
1960s
Electricity provides
over 50%
of energy consumed by
2070
Electricity demand
doubles
in OECD countries and is
6 times
greater in non-OECD countries in
2070,
compared with 2017
Industry & Agriculture in 2070
A mix of government policies and consumer demand could help industry and agriculture become more energy efficient
In Sky, some
10,000
carbon capture and storage
facilities are needed by
2070
to address emissions from industries
like steel, cement and iron
Net
CO2 emissions
from land-use
change reaches
zero by 2070
Transport in 2070
Electric cars could become the norm, alongside new fuels for trucks, ships and planes
In Sky, electric vehicles reach
cost parity
with internal combustion engine cars by
2025
By
2025
all new passenger vehicles bought
in the OECD and China are electric
By
2050
this is true globally
Electricity
and
hydrogen
vehicles revolutionise global
road transport, with
biofuels
continuing to play a
role across land, sea and air
Buildings & Cities in 2070
Homes and cities of the future could be carbon neutral, and super efficient
Buildings are almost
100%
electrified by
2070
Nearly
2 out of 3
people live in cities by
2050
Resource-efficient cities are compact,
integrated and collaborative
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This website contains data and analysis from Shell’s new Sky scenario. Unlike Shell’s previously published Mountains and Oceans exploratory scenarios, the Sky scenario is based on the assumption that society reaches the Paris Agreement’s goal of holding the rise in global average temperatures this century to well below two degrees Celsius (2°C) above pre-industrial levels. Unlike Shell’s Mountains and Oceans scenarios which unfolded in an open-ended way based upon plausible assumptions and quantifications, the Sky scenario was specifically designed to reach the Paris Agreement’s goal in a technically possible manner. These scenarios are a part of an ongoing process used in Shell for almost 50 years to challenge executives’ perspectives on the future business environment. They are designed to stretch management to consider even events that may only be remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Royal Dutch Shell plc securities.
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The Sky scenario Highlights tells a story of how a new energy system could unfold between now and 2070. Scroll through the pages in order to see how the story could evolve.
The data tables were compiled by the Shell scenarios Team in February 2018. The forward-looking data represents the outcome of Shell's analysis, while historical data have come from various data sources.
Oil and gas data sources include Wood Mackenzie, Rystad Energy, IHS, International Energy Agency, US Energy Information Administration, Canadian National Energy Board, US Geological Survey and Shell analysis. The coal resources are derived from Bundesanstalt für Geowissenschaften und Rohstoffe (BGR) and Shell analysis. Renewable resources data include Navigant (Ecofys) and Shell analysis.
The figures for all energy sources and carriers are in exajoule (EJ) per year.
The figures for population are in millions of people and the figures for GDP in millions of USD (2010 USD, PPP).
The figures for energy service for passenger transport are in billion vehicle kilometres per year and for freight transport billion tonne kilometres per year.
For definitions or chart descriptions, please go to the Definitions tab.
Energy sources are those sources in found nature which can be used to provide energy. We follow the IEA's definitions of energy sources (www.iea.org/statistics/resources/balancedefinitions), but for convenience we will provide a shortened version here.
Energy carriers are useful forms of energy which can be consumed by end-use sectors. Energy carriers are created or generated from energy sources. For example, crude oil (energy source) is refined into gasoline, a liquid hydrocarbon fuel (energy carrier), which can then be used to fuel someone's car (end-use).
Energy carriers are useful forms of energy which can be consumed by end-use sectors. Energy carriers are created or generated from energy sources. For example, crude oil (energy source) is refined into gasoline, a liquid hydrocarbon fuel (energy carrier), which can then be used to fuel someone's car (end-use).
The Sky scenario was tested and quantified through the use of Shell's World Energy Model, Global Supply Model and the Global Energy Resources database. Find out more about these models here.
Read our World Energy Model Brochure for the complete methodology.
Find out moreRead our Global Supply Model brocure to find out.
Find out moreExplore how the world's fossil and renewable energy resources are distributed - now and in future.
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